I have just been told by a Japanese English teacher that this grammar construction would only ever be used in written Japanese, and even in written Japanese, women would never use it. Apparently, it is not used in conversations by either men or women.
So, in conversation, the sentence 本当に出来るのかい？ would become 本当に出来るの？ or 本当に出来る？
I have definitely heard it in the last 2 or 3 days, hehe. I hear the other forms you gave more often, but I do hear the かい. Hopefully someone can comment on it, as what I gave above is simply anecdotal information.
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12 years ago
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I hear it all the time on アニメ. I know that's probably not the corroborative source you were looking for, but there it is. Most of the time I see it used by middle-aged to elderly people (both men and women, but probably more by the former), especially when they are speaking in a kind tone to younger people or children. I've also seen it in 漫画, in similar situations.
Here's what [i]Japanese: The Manga Way[/i] has to say about it:
"In colloquial speech, かい is sometimes used instead of か to mark a question. Most commonly it has a softer, friendlier feeling than the abrupt か, but the right tone of voice in a contentious situation can make it even more forceful than か."
I hear かい a lot too in spoken Japanese - it does seem more heavily weighted toward the menfolk, but I have heard women use it. I have to say though, I don't think I've [i]ever[/i] seen it in writing, unless it was dialogue in a book or something.
I've only ever used it when talking to close guy friends or children. I can't say I hear it very often at the school I teach at and definitely never at the office.
